Lets start with the locks obviously The Artist,Hugo and for best picture. Second tier contenders are Moneyball, The Help and Midnignit in Paris. Although The Help isn't a much of a contender and a nomitations will depend on how the academy takes into account the new rule if they decide to almostn ignore it completely then Thghe Help could be in danger and it had as much people who loved as Moneyabll and Midnight in Paris but considering the actor branch is a big part of the academy it's hard not to see it getting nomitated. Know we get the intersting part the final 2 nomitations and the 5 percent. First to get I belive there will be eight films this year. I think that seven films are automically a given the vote is spread enough to allow for seven but a eight film which in my opnion would be either Drive ,The Girl with the Dragon Tatto or even War Horse are liked enough to garner enough first place votes for an eight but not enough to have 9 spots. Now the final three spots will really come down to a battle between War Horse,Drive and The Girl with the Dragon Tatto. There was a time that War Horse was in the running for best picture but a DGA snub and a WGA sunb and a lack of wins in almost any department leaves me wondering if a best picture nomitation could possiblity I think it's unlikely but I won't be suprised. I think it will really come down to the Drive and The Girl with the Dragon Tatto battling it out for the eight spot and I have my edge to the The Girl with the Dragon Tatto. For the sole reason that the Guilds have given then a load of nomitation and it really hard to ingore a DGa nomitation. Although Drive does have a lot of support to overcome a lack of guilds nomitation. If I had to put something else in a eighth spot then I would put Tinker,Tailor,Solider,Spy or Tree of Life both I don't think can overcome there lack of nomitations Tinker,Tailor Solider spy maybe bafta but those came after the oscar ballots were mailed.
5. The Help
6.Midnight in Paris
Quick Note: This is a post on who will be nomitated not who will win.