Breaking Down the Major Races

Lets face it in all the major races it will always come down to two films,performances,direction and scripts. However this year is much different although in the final weeks it probably will the race has been shoken up by ctics the Sag's, and golden globes. It's going to be a hell of a tough time to decide.(just to be clear this is an article on who's going to win not who's going to be nominated. First Original Screenplay is going to come The Artist and Midnight in Paris. This is really going to be completely dependent on how people feel how the Artist in February or if this category will be measured as a consolation prize. First it's hard to tell if The Artist is peaking early. A lot of films have done that  the Social Network coming to mind. If that is happening then this category could be considered a consolation prize. This happen with Milk, Little Miss Sunshine ,Juno and so on. It seems in both cases that The Artist will win. However this category usually goes to a dialogue centered. And not to state the obvious but Midnight in Paris is a much more dialogue  centered script but The Artist is probably the favorite for this. Next best adapted screenplay is between The Descendants and Moneyball. Either way I'm over the moon whoever wins.  Again another category that will come down if this category is viewed as a consolation prize or the Descendants sweeps but even if none of the above happens The Descendants will probably win. Moneyball is a great script and Sorkin is a great writer but he already won the academy is always hesitant to give a Oscar to the same person. (I know that he wasn't the only one who wrote this) And the  Descendants is also a great script as well. Best animated feature is between Tintin and Rango with probably Rango coming out on top. Steven Spielberg is beloved by the academy and with War Horse coming out they could give this to him as a reward for that film without having to give him best director or picture but simply put Rango is more of a animated film and Tintin is more of a action adventure plus the fact this Rango is winning every animated film award imaginable it seems very unlikely it won't. Now onto Best Supporting Actor. This race is probably going to Christopher Plummer with Albert Brooks as the runner up and possible spoiler no one else have a chance. I know your excepting a in depth analysis but  simply some of these races are locked up. Best supporting actress actually is one of the wild cards. The race first seemed lock up for Octivia Spencer with Shailene Woodly as a possible spoiler but suddenly the Sag took this race and complete shook it up. Shailene Woodly might not even be nominated and Jessica Chastian Tree of Life love was replaced with love for the help Janet Mcteer and Melissa McCarthy are in the race. This could go to a lot of people if the academy loves the Artist then Berence Bejo could win however everyone say the same thing about the King speech last year and that didn't happen. Jessica Chastain had a very good year but will split votes with herself and Octivia Spencer and Janet Mcteer doesn't seem to very memorable, and of course Melissa McCarthy could be recognized in the same way Penelope Cruz was in 2008. Shailene Woodly winning seems unlikely after the SAG snub. But at this point I would say that Octavia Spencer is the favourite.
Best Actress is  going to come down between Viola Davis,Michelle Williams, Meryl Streep with maybe an outside chance for Gleen Close if only for the reason of sympathy. But Meryl  Streep and Viola Davis and Michelle Williams are all close with probably a better chance for Michelle Williams and Viola Davis haven't won. However it will come down to the fact if The Help acting is still loved. personally Viola Davis is probably in the lead for the sole reason that she is winning most of the awards but Michelle Willams could easily pull ahead same for Meryl Streep.Best Actor nominations are also locked at this point so it safe to say who the race is between. It seems that the race is narrowing down to George Clooney and Brad Pitt with an outside shot from. Leornado Dicarprio although it seems is due the film has received negative reviews and with The Great Gatsby coming out next year I think people simply would just give it to him next year . Jean Dujardin although The Artist is the favourite for best picture it seems that he is not to well known among others, his broken English will prevent him from campainging hard. However he is getting all of the second place vote and Brad Pitt and George Clooney. And the NC-17 rating will prevent Micheal Fassbender him from getting a win on that sole reason alone. Brad Pitt and George Clooney are receiving major love from critics and are both loved. It's very close race though and may come to the fact that George Clooney has won before.